What hinders innovation performance of services and manufacturing firms in Mexico?

Barriers to innovation are heterogeneous, of financial and non-financial nature. The importance of barriers to innovation and their actual influence on innovation depend on firms’ characteristics such as sectoral affiliation, technological behavior and their response to perceived obstacles to innovation. Firms either continue to engage in innovation, or they avoid the activity altogether. This paper explored the nature and perceived importance of the obstacles to innovation that firms confront, in a developing-country context; we build on survey data about firms in Mexico. Our findings suggest that two kinds of policy interventions should help offset a firm’s perception of barriers to innovation. On the one hand, policies should enhance the innovation capacity of firms interested in innovation; on the other hand, policies need to tackle factors that reduce the interest of firms in innovation. Policies that boost demand for locally generated innovations would assist in achieving both these goals.     

Too Popular to Ignore: The Influence of Online Reviews on Purchase Intentions of Search and Experience Products

Consumers assess the credibility of online product reviews to guide their purchase decisions. However, little is known about how consumers determine the credibility of online product reviews. This article examines the effect of the level of detail in a product review and the level of reviewer agreement with it on the credibility of a review and consumers' purchase intentions for search and experience products. Overall, the results indicate that more credible reviews lead to higher purchase intentions. Interestingly, the findings also demonstrate that consumers determine the credibility of a review differently for search and experience products. For search products, consumers deem online reviews to be more credible when the reviews contain detailed information about the product. However, for experience products, consumers determine the credibility of a review by assessing the level of reviewer agreement with a review. The lack of diagnosticity of detailed information in online reviews of experience products is attributed to the idiosyncratic nature of experiences. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

The Endurance and Eclipse of the Controlled Vote: A Formal Model of Vote Brokerage Under the Secret Ballot

Throughout much of mankind's experience with elections, vote brokers – local elites who direct the voting decisions of a subset of the electorate – have been able to make or break political careers. In various polities, brokers have thrived in spite of the secret ballot, a surprising outcome given that vote secrecy would ostensibly allow citizens to pocket the inducements offered by such individuals and vote their consciences anyway. To address this puzzle, we develop a framework for understanding the persistence and demise of vote brokerage under the secret ballot. In our model, a broker contracts with voters using an outcome contingent contract: some fixed benefit is promised to all voters sharing one of several observable profiles should the broker's candidate win the election. Using this framework, we demonstrate that the existence of brokerage depends on the size of the electorate contained within the jurisdiction controlled by the broker, with large jurisdiction sizes tending to drive brokerage out of existence. Moreover, we detail the manner in which the strategies employed by brokers depend on their economic power, the size of social groups, and ideological polarization. Empirical evidence from Minas Gerais, Brazil is used to evaluate the performance of the model.     

Externalities, expectations, and growth

Summary. The paper studies a model of accumulation and growth where a continuum of heterogeneous firms play dynamically optimal strategies along a (rational expectations) equilibrium. The key feature of the model is that firms' technological decisions are assumed subject to both friction and external effects. This gives rise to a wide multiplicity of equilibrium behavior, any path of sustained growth requiring that the economy tackle a never-ending chain of fresh coordination problems. This setup is modelled as a (non-atomic) dynamic game, suitable conditions being provided that partially characterize when sustained growth is a possible (never the unique) equilibrium outcome. Received: May 25, 1995; revised version: March 25, 1998     

Short-run exchange rate uncertainty in Latin America

This paper to obtain an ex ante measure of exchange rate uncertainty in 11 Latin American countries. As a preliminary issue, the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is tested using Engle and Granger two-step procedure and Johansen method. The argument is that exchange rate uncertainty could be lower if PPP holds in the long run. The expected exchange rate uncertainty is estimated according to an extended version of the autoregressive, conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) model. The results show that the ARCH adjusment produces more efficient estimates in seven countries and that the acceptance of PPP has little effect on exchange rate uncertainty.     

Existence of steady – state equium in an overlapping-generations model with production

Summary This paper establishes an existence theorem of a non-trivial (positive capital stock) steady-state equilibrium in Diamond's (1965) overlapping-generations model with production by employing the steady-state consumption curve introduced in Ihori (1978). The assumptions on preferences and production technologies that ensure the existence of a nontrivial steadystate equilibrium are separated from each other, unlike in Galor and Ryder (1989). We also provide two simple examples which illustrate the importance of two conditions in the theorem.Detailed comments by Tomoichi Shinotsuka and the referees of the journal were quite helpful. We also thank Marcus Berliant, Mark Bus, John H. Boyd III, Ban Chuan Cheah, Rajat Deb, Jim Dolmas, Oded Galor, Greg Huffman, Toshihiro Ihori, Radhika Lahiri, Lionel McKenzie, Arundhati Sen, and the seminar participants at the Midwest Mathematical Economics Conference in Ann Abor and at University of Rochester. The second author gratefully acknowledges the financial supports from the European Community Human Capital Mobility Program.     

Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach

We examine the real convergence hypothesis for 14 OECD countries looking at the fractional order of integration of the differences of real GDP per capita in these countries with respect to the United States. Using parametric procedures, the results vary depending on how we specify the I(0) disturbances. If they are white noise, convergence is achieved for Canada and Australia, and with autocorrelated disturbances, this hypothesis is satisfied for France and the Netherlands. However, allowing for a break at World War II, evidence of convergence is obtained for all countries. JEL no. C32, O41     

An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.     

Evaluation of drought management in irrigated areas

This paper focuses on the economic consequences of droughts for the irrigation sector. We develop a dynamic‐recursive mathematical programming farm model that assumes imperfect mobility of capital and labour as well as rational expectations about future water availability. The model is calibrated to 12 representative farms belonging to three irrigation communities of the Guadalquivir Basin (south Spain) and used to simulate the 1991–1997 period, which included 3 years of intense drought. Results indicate that the drought imposed significant costs on farmers, but show also that water managers partly exacerbated these costs by allocating excessive amounts of water to irrigators in the abundant years. The model is also used to evaluate the benefits of a perfect water supply forecast and to simulate the economic gains of a voluntary water banking scheme. Results show that the benefits resulting from the perfect forecast of water supply 1 year ahead would represent a relative gain of 5%. However, a voluntary banking system would allow farmers to increase their benefits by 32–82% depending on the supply system.     

Collateral in Monetary Policy Operations

We present a portfolio decision model for banks that permits us to estimate the costs associated with the need to collateralise loans from the central bank. This allows us to calibrate the difference between a restrictive collateral eligibility framework for open market operations, such as that applied by the FED, with a more flexible approach such as that of Eurosystem. We also document that there could potentially appear relevant cost differences between the various collateral mobilisation procedures (pooling and earmarking) that currently coexist in the eurozone.